Chapter 8

TECHNOLOGY FOR 21ST CENTURY WARFARE

Events of the past decade have demonstrated that U.S. forces must be prepared both to confront a wide range of potential opponents and to execute diverse missions ranging from combat operations to peacekeeping and disaster relief. In the future, U.S. military forces will be challenged to adapt to new and even more diverse military missions.

Two major trends will influence how the Department of Defense will conduct successful military operations in the 21st century. The first is the tremendous explosion in new technologies. Capabilities available today were not well understood just several years ago. Depending on their economic growth and credit worthiness, potential opponents will be able to buy significant capabilities from a global market containing a vast array of these modern and emerging technologies. These technologies include advanced air, sea, and land weapon systems; space-based systems, dual-use technologies that can be used to support production of weapons of mass destruction; and sophisticated communications and information management systems. The second is the challenge of resources. The need to contain the growth of future defense budgets, the downsizing of the Services, and expanding missions require that the Department shape its forces to meet the challenges of a changing world within resource constraints.

REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS

The challenges the Department faces today and will encounter in the future must be addressed within the context of confronting a wide range of military missions and opponents with access to the most modern weapons. To respond effectively to present and future military challenges and remain within the constraints of the military budget, the Department is examining the process of military innovation from an historical context. The objective of this examination is to understand how innovative adaptation of new technologies fostered new operational and organizational changes, resulting in dramatic improvements in the warfighting capability of U.S. forces. This initiative is the foundation of the emerging Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). In studying historical examples, the Department is seeking to understand whether recently fielded and emerging technologies, in combination with organizational and operational changes, will produce dramatic improvements to better prepare U.S. forces to face the future.

From the historical perspective, an RMA occurs when the incorporation of new technologies into military systems combines with innovative operational concepts and organizational adaptations to fundamentally alter the conduct of military operations. In discussing the RMA, it is important to understand that the process of change is not necessarily rapid. Past revolutions have often unfolded over a period of decades. More often than not, the change is considered revolutionary rather than evolutionary because new technologies, when combined with new methods of warfare, have proved far more powerful than the old and dramatically altered scope and application of military power. Twentieth century examples of RMAs include strategic bombing, the blitzkrieg, carrier aviation, amphibious warfare, and strategic nuclear weapons. Some maintain the introduction of stealth technology represents the commencement of a new RMA.

Through a process of study, discussion, and wargaming, two ideas have emerged that suggest how emerging technology and concepts may alter future warfare and military operations. The first major concept is that long-range precision strike weapons, coupled with very effective sensors and command and control systems, will become a dominant factor in future warfare. Technology enhancements including the development of stealth technologies and a comprehensive intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance complex are key enablers of this concept. Rather than closing with an opponent, the preferable operational mode may be to destroy him at a distance. To date, the concept has been elaborated mostly in connection with a continental air-land theater. During 1995 and 1996, this concept has expanded to include the application of long-range precision strikes in power projection, war at sea, and space operations.

The second concept embodied in the RMA is emergence of what is often called Information Operations. Information technologies have dramatically improved the ability to gather, process, and disseminate information, in near-real time, to support military operations. The RMA envisions that protection of the effective and continuous operation of one's own information systems, and being able to degrade, destroy, or disrupt the function of the opponents, will become an operational priority.

Information Age Technologies will provide warfighters with a breadth and depth of information unparalleled in military history. Using this information to enhance the command and control of precision strike weapons will provide U.S. forces with capabilities which have never before been available.

ARTICULATING THE VISION

All Services are seeking to articulate a vision of the future that identifies their critical missions, the necessary technologies, and the organizational structures within which they will operate. In attempting to build upon both the lessons learned and the concepts of the RMA, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has prepared Joint Vision 2010, a conceptual template that provides a common direction to assist the Services in developing their unique capabilities within a joint framework. Joint Vision 2010 builds upon the enduring foundation of high quality people and innovative leadership. The traditional concepts of maneuver, strike, protection, and logistics will be leveraged with technological advances and information superiority. These leveraged concepts are:

• Dominant Maneuver. The multidimensional application of information engagement and mobility capabilities to position and employ widely dispersed joint air, land, sea, and space forces to accomplish the assigned operational tasks.
• Precision Engagement. The capability that enables U.S. forces to locate the objective or target, provide responsive command and control, generate the desired effect, assess the level of success, and retain the flexibility to reengage with precision when required.
• Full Dimension Protection. By controlling the battlespace, U.S. forces can maintain freedom of action during deployment, maneuver, and engagement, while providing multilayered defenses for U.S. forces and facilities at all levels.
• Focused Logistics. The fusion of information, logistics, and transportation technologies to provide rapid crisis response, to track and shift assets even while enroute, and to deliver tailored logistics packages and sustainment directly at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGIC PLANNING

A critical component of preparing for the 21st century is identification of science and technology (S&T) programs that might contribute to an RMA, and which can be used to support the concepts of the Chairman's Joint Vision 2010 and the visions of the Services. Key to the success of the Department's S&T program are the insights into new and emerging technology ideas from both the commercial world and the Department of Defense, the opportunities and trends in technological developments, and the ability to respond to breakthrough developments.

The Department's S&T program, detailed in Chapter 16, builds upon the guidance of the President's National Security S&T Strategy, the Defense S&T Strategy, and the needs identified by the military departments, Joint Staff, combatant commanders, and the Joint Requirements Oversight Council. The guidance, priorities, and principles of the Department's S&T programs are set out in a series of documents. Used to influence planning and identify choices necessary within established fiscal constraints, these documents are the Defense S&T Strategy and the three S&T strategic plans: the Joint Warfighting S&T Plan, the Defense Technology Area Plan, and the Basic Research Plan. The detailed S&T plans of the military departments and defense agencies are complementary extensions of these DoD S&T strategic plans. These plans provide investment guidance to support the key RMA concepts and develop technologies supporting implementation of the Chairman's Joint Vision 2010 and those of the Services. At the same time, they recognize that S&T efforts are inherently unpredictable and that plans will evolve as new opportunities arise, emerging technologies are better understood, and military needs change.

IMPLEMENTING INNOVATION

To explore the concepts of the Revolution in Military Affairs, implement key tenets of the Chairman's Joint Vision 2010, and provide a flexible, responsive means of adapting new or emerging technologies to new military challenges, the Department has developed an approach to foster innovation. Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations (ACTDs) are a major initiative of this Administration. As a component of the acquisition reform process, ACTDs specifically address the need to insert technology rapidly into the military forces. ACTDs are designed to accelerate the transition of maturing technologies that demonstrate a potential to rapidly provide improved military capabilities or technological solutions to specific operational challenges. ACTDs draw technologists and military operational commanders into closer working relationships. The objective of this relationship is to allow operators to more fully assess the potential and prospective applications of new technologies at a much earlier point in the acquisition process. The ACTD approach permits the technological community to have a better understanding of both the present and future military needs.

ACTDs are focused by the military user and the user's critical warfighting needs. The ACTD objective is to permit the user to gain a more thorough understanding of a new technology and its potential to support military operations. In doing so, it is anticipated the user will be able to develop and refine the doctrine, tactics and organization, and concepts of operation to fully exploit the new technologies. The ACTD also will allow the user, based upon experience in the field, to comment on capabilities and make suggestions for improvements or modifications to the equipment under evaluation. The ACTD approach permits these changes to be made during the relatively informal and low cost demonstration phase of a system's life cycle. The user's input derived from an ACTD will provide the basis for a more knowledgeable statement of requirements with which to enter the formal acquisition process. This means entering the acquisition process with the full input and coordination of the operational commander. ACTDs provide the operator with an opportunity to work with the developer and evaluate the technology, leading to more informed acquisition decisions. ACTDs also provide the commander with enough equipment to provide a militarily significant capability at the end of the demonstration and to support the systems for an additional two years in the field.

There are several key criteria against which ACTD candidates are evaluated:

• User Needs. ACTDs focus on addressing critical military needs. To evaluate proposed solutions to meet these needs, intense user involvement is required. ACTDs place mature technologies in the hands of the user and then conduct realistic and extensive military exercises or actual operations to provide the user an opportunity to evaluate utility and gain experience with the capability. For example, the Medium Altitude Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) ACTD deployed the Predator UAV to support military operations in the former Republic of Yugoslavia in both 1995 and 1996. The process provides the users with a basis for evaluating and refining their operational requirements, for developing a corresponding concept of operations, and ultimately for developing a sound understanding of the military utility of the proposed solution, before a formal acquisition decision is made.
• Exploit Mature Technologies. ACTDs are based on mature or nearly mature technologies. By limiting consideration to mature or maturing technologies, the ACTD avoids the time and risks associated with technology development, concentrating instead on the integration and demonstration activities. This approach permits early user demonstration on a greatly reduced schedule at low cost. As an example, the Battlefield Awareness and Data Dissemination ACTD relies heavily upon emerging commercial technologies like direct broadcast satellite systems.
• Potential Effectiveness. The potential or projected effectiveness must be sufficient to warrant consideration as the ACTD must meet a military need which other currently fielded or planned capabilities do not suitably address. To ensure that ACTDs are properly focused, a coordination process between the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Advanced Technology) and the Joint Requirements Oversight Council reviews all candidate ACTDs. ACTDs have been identified as a key implementation tool for the Chairman's Joint Vision 2010. Those already in progress have been used to address both long- and near-term military issues. For instance, the Cruise Missile Defense (Phase I) or Mountain Top ACTD addresses sensor and sensor fusion technologies necessary to detect and combat a potential cruise missile threat. On a near-term scale, the Counter-Sniper ACTD, initiated in June 1996, within four months evaluated a series of technological options to counter the potential sniper threat to U.S. forces participating in Operation Joint Endeavor in Bosnia.

ACTD MILESTONES

During 1996, the ACTD process achieved many significant accomplishments. In addition to continuing to refine the process, including both the identification and selection of future ACTDs and potential transition options upon the conclusion of an ACTD, the Department continued to execute the 10 ACTDs initiated in FY 1995 and the 12 initiated in FY 1996. As the ACTD process matures, attention is being given to ensure smooth transitions into the acquisition process. Five ACTDs were completed in FY 1996.

• The Low Life Cycle Cost, Medium Lift Helicopter ACTD was executed from August to October 1995. Its objective was to evaluate the potential of a leased commercial helicopter with a civilian crew and maintenance to operate aboard Military Sealift Command (MSC) ships. As a result of the demonstration, the Navy and MSC concluded that leasing helicopters may be a viable alternative to using Navy helicopters for vertical replenishment aboard MSC vessels. The Navy is conducting a follow-on demonstration.
• The Kinetic Energy Boost Phase Intercept (BPI) ACTD which evaluated the affordability, operational utility, and mission effectiveness of BPI engagements of tactical ballistic missiles, was terminated after completion of Phase I. The ACTD demonstrated that the fighter-based Kinetic Energy BPI concept, while technically feasible, was operationally unaffordable.
• The Cruise Missile Defense ACTD Phase I demonstration was completed in January 1996 with four intercepts of simulated land attack cruise missiles by ship-launched air defense missiles directed by a surrogate radar located on a mountain top simulating an airborne sensor. A Phase II Cruise Missile Defense ACTD is being considered as an FY 1997 candidate.
• The Medium Altitude Endurance UAV, Predator has successfully deployed to Bosnia on two occasions. This ACTD was completed in July 1996 as originally planned. Based on an assessment of military utility by the ACTD operational sponsor, United States Atlantic Command, and prioritization by the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, the Predator has transitioned from an ACTD to the Air Force as an operational system. Procurement for additional systems began in FY 1997.
• The Counter-Sniper ACTD was initiated in May 1996, upon request of the Commander in Chief, U.S. European Command, to provide counter-sniper capabilities in support of Operation Joint Endeavor if deemed appropriate. It was a four month effort to evaluate a series of advanced technology counter-sniper systems designed to locate a sniper fired weapon. The effort was successfully completed in September 1996 with the operational users providing assessments and retaining those systems which were assessed as providing enhanced capabilities.

Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations are discussed in depth in the Department's FY 1996 ACTD Master Plan, which includes detailed discussions of both the ACTD process and individual demonstrations. As the ACTD process continues to mature, a key objective is to ensure ACTDs serve as both a means to focus evaluation of elements of the future vision of warfare and as a way to assess the technologies to current or emerging military needs.

CONCLUSION

The need for U.S. military forces to adapt to new and more diverse military missions is matched by the requirement to meet these challenges within the constraints of available resources. The concurrent explosion in new technologies offers opportunities to innovatively assess new ways of addressing these issues. Within the general concept of the Revolution in Military Affairs is the opportunity to address application of new technologies to affect the nature and scope of future military operations.